The devastation in Venezuela is evident and the pandemic is exposing it. Six years of Maduro’s government have taken a toll on the healthcare system, the economy, and food distribution networks, a panorama on which the pandemic now hangs. Humanitarian aid is urgent, but there are signs that it will not be delivered to the illegitimate nor the powerless. Will the coronavirus force the parties into a compromise?

On March 6, I wrote the following observation on Twitter: “The coronavirus has reached 95 countries already, including some with the best healthcare system. Is it conceivable that it has not reached Venezuela, where there is no public health but iron censorship that persecutes the doctors who dare to warn about a disease? ”

It was a basic question. Has Wuhan’s disease avoided Venezuela or has it been among us for a long time? We do not know it because the infected have not been diagnosed or, if they are, the regime may hide it. Instead of responding to my suspicion, with data, or with something similar to an answer, the regime unleashed its communication pack and intensely harassed my account for the next 24 hours. It exploded in a moment, it was very acute for a day and suddenly, just as it started, it stopped. By the way, a good part of that time I was doing the documentation work that I recommend to those who are the target of this form of abuse from chavismo. Even a vice-minister joined the insults and threats tournament.

I can’t say it affected me. I am used to it. I have been dealing with these eruptions for more than twenty years. (I have, in fact, a nice collection of threats from chavismo and a certain opposition leadership that coincide in ferociousness). But I was surprised by the anger that the pair of lines unleashed. It was evident they touched a nerve. I was certain then about the existence of coronavirus cases in Venezuela and that the regime suddenly awakened to the smoking crater that has become the country’s health system. If it did not care about bringing back tuberculosis, malaria, diphtheria, and measles, and multiplying HIV cases, this time it would perceive the situation as a problem: If the coronavirus means a pandemic for the world, in Venezuela, it would take on the appearance of catastrophe, given the destruction wrought by 21st-century socialism.

On January 10, Nicolás Maduro in an address to the nation said healthcare was guaranteed in the event of coronavirus arriving in Venezuela, and that his government had the necessary budget to combat it. The country shook. Everything Maduro says corresponds exactly to the contrary. If the Chinese scourge wreaked havoc in free countries, with food, public services, and hospitals, it might spread horror in Venezuela…

Neither North Korea nor Venezuela

The Washington Post addressed the issue two weeks later, on March 20, in an editorial titled “Why is the spread of Covid-19 in Venezuela a particularly frightening prospect?” It said exactly what my tweet had suggested: “No one believes that North Korea has escaped the epidemic.” That is, no one buys into the story that, coincidentally, coronavirus cases are nonexistent in totalitarian countries where censorship is rife. According to the great Washington newspaper, “the epidemic in Venezuela presents a particularly frightening prospect, given that the country’s health system was already in a state of collapse, its citizens fleeing to other Latin American countries at the rate of thousands per day, and its illegitimate and corrupt government unable to meet the new challenge […] More than 30 percent of hospitals lack electricity and water, and 80 percent lack basic supplies or qualified medical personnel, many of whom are among the 4.8 million people who have fled the country.”

A bleak picture, which does not, however, include other aspects that make up an even worse scenario, such as the fact that the pandemic is hovering over a population weakened by lack of food supply aggravated by fuel shortages.

At this time we are unable to know the number of coronavirus cases in Venezuela. Not only because the regime persecutes and punishes health personnel who warn of possible outbreaks and denounce the lack of supplies to deal with them, but because the test is applied only to those who already present symptoms. And it turns out that the Journal of Science has just said that the spread of the coronavirus in Wuhan was particularly due to undetected cases.

“For the country to receive life-saving aid, it is necessary to unite the two pieces, legitimacy and control of the territory. Otherwise, food, medicine, and supplies will not arrive”

There is, therefore, no early detection (much less for asymptomatic patients), but there may also be thousands of people who have never heard of the Chinese disease because chavismo tore down far-reaching mass media in Venezuela. And some others, even showing symptoms, will not consider the possibility of going to a hospital because they lack the transportation means or hope in health centers degraded to graveyards.

Not doctors, soldiers

About the time Cuba admitted the existence of cases on the island, Maduro also recognized them in Venezuela. Another coincidence. And, perhaps because he did not dismiss the threat saying that it would dissipate with acetaminophen bushes or Sai Baba stamps, some people marveled at the sudden change of the usurper, who even ordered quarantines, much like the heads of democratic states. The positive impression would not last, since the next minute, instead of summoning the country’s medical reserve, Maduro handed the crisis over to the military. We saw General Padrino López in a press conference surrounded by his men, all wearing masks, while doctors from all over the country complained about the lack of equipment in hospitals.

In the following hours, even with the military repressing, kidnapping members of parliament, jailing nurses, preventing journalists from working and deleting their pictures, Venezuelans were able to verify that the regime, which did not have a unified message (Maduro said one thing and Jorge Rodríguez another ) kept lying. The sudden vote of confidence quickly faded away. Hospitals lack not only water, electricity, face masks, gloves, and glasses, but also disposable gowns and cleaning materials (soap, chlorine, disinfectants).

Maduro went from acting like a statesman to making jokes. He went from saying “It takes a spirit of struggle, of resistance, of patience. Conscience, seriousness in handling information. I ask for national unity. That is why it is good to speak clearly to the population”, to tell he had locked himself up with Cilia to watch a comic series. The background of his successive characterizations was to blame the coronavirus for the damage that his government has caused to the economy, infrastructure, health, and social fabric of Venezuela.

A few billion, for God’s sake

Then he had the idea of turning to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to request a 5 billion dollars loan, to the very same organization claiming that Venezuela lost 65% of GDP in six years (the time Maduro has been in power); the same organization showing that this debacle cannot be attributed to the economic sanctions imposed by the USA, given that they went into effect in August 2019. The move was immediately rejected in the following terms: “The IMF’s commitment to member countries is based on the official recognition of the government by the international community […]. There is no clarity about recognition at this time.”

Given that the regime does not remotely comply with the Fund’s requirements to access an emergency loan, many analysts warned that Miraflores made the request fully aware it would not be granted, to victimize itself and reinforce the stratagem according to which Venezuela’s disaster has different culprits than Maduro and Chávez. Surely, Maduro did not expect the denial would highlight his usurper status.

“Sooner or later, the pandemic and the abrasive quarantine will summon the political actors to a compromise. Many sectors of the country are calling for it with energy and haste”

Meanwhile, the situation in Venezuela continues to deteriorate. The coronavirus transmission curve is the steepest in the world. As an example: While Italy, the leader in fatalities, took 24 days to go from one infected to 15, Venezuela recorded 33 cases in 4 days. If that were not enough, we also have the largest number of patients under the age of 50.

Food distribution chains are weakened by the hour but the regime’s answer is to allocate money (in bolivars) through Carnet de la Patria (The Homeland Card), a partisan, discriminatory mechanism of very little benefit in a context of hyperinflation.

Something must be done

To the point: Venezuela is a hazard to itself and the region. Even if the cases do not multiply as in Europe, the coronavirus will be lethal, because the quarantine will deal fatal blows to the economy and the distribution of the few goods and services that the exhausted country still manages to produce. We should do something.

The tenor of the IMF response is very important. Not because it denies loan money to the worst-performing administration in the history of Venezuela, but because it shows how dangerous Maduro’s illegitimacy can be: In the current circumstance, literally deadly. And the point is that Juan Guaidó, who does have legitimacy, has no control of the territory or of what remains of the institutions.

“We cannot stand still and think of a strategy after the disease and its many consequences have disarranged the board. We have to act ”

Venezuela must access humanitarian aid and international cooperation. Now. It is urgent. A matter of minimal humanity. The IMF has confronted us with the fact that Maduro is not recognized by its 189 member states as the legitimate president, but he has the reins of the ministries, 19 governorates, 308 mayoralties, the armed forces, and the militias (not to mention colectivos and other criminal structures). And Guaidó, who is recognized as President in charge of more than 60 nations, does not have much more than that. For the country to receive the aid on which its survival depends, it is necessary to unite the two pieces, legitimacy and control of the territory. Otherwise, food, medicine, and supplies will not arrive (do not forget Cúcuta). And, meanwhile, the tic tac resonates… We could be approaching a hospital emergency, which we cannot face. Will they let us die? Does the suffering of Venezuelans matter to no one?

Aid depends not only on valid interlocutors within the country but on a reliable structure for those providing it, as well as strictly scrutinized channels and procedures. And this is something that the regime will never accept. Maduro’s refusal to do something in conjunction with the opposition is not so much a ritual of polarization than a way to make sure no one is going to look into his accounts.

I hand over the bucks, you show the accountability

Sooner or later, the pandemic and the abrasive quarantine will summon the political actors to a compromise. Many sectors of the country are calling for it with energy and haste whilst Chavismo systematically remains in denial. After decades of demonizing one another, an agreement with who disqualifies, persecutes, tortures, riddles you on camera and throws you out of windows, would amount to capitulation. But the time will come when the survival of chavistas, their families, and all Venezuelans depends on it.

Maduro cut Venezuela apart in his determination of clinging to power and opening the doors to the mafia that have enriched the ruling party. We cannot expect him to care about the hardships of the people, even if it involves the threat of devastation. But some factions inside the chavismo, holding some power, could see the moment come to stop the demolishing caterpillar.

The truth is this pandemic changes everything. We cannot stand still and think of a strategy after the disease and its many consequences have disarranged the board. We have to act. And in the face of such a formidable threat, we must act differently.

One possibility would be for the regime and the National Assembly (AN) to put Maduro and Guaidó aside. Certainly, Maduro cannot put his hand on a dollar because we know a quarter will go to Cuba, another quarter to the mafia, and the remaining half to his pockets and those of his intimate surroundings. After the regime and the AN remove Maduro and Guaidó respectively, a list of candidates to form a commission is proposed. Ten or twenty names from which each side will make a selection: Three by the regime, three by the opposition representing the AN as a legitimate body, and a representative of the civil society. These seven Venezuelans, who would have the acceptance and respect of the entire country, would form a board to enter into talks with the international community. The board will receive the aid and guarantee transparency, offering all the means to oversee the use of resources. In the best of worlds, they could also agree on free, fair, and reliable elections, which would provide an institutional solution to the tragedy over which a giant came to sneeze after having a bat soup.