More people in extreme poverty, less availability of water and losses of up to 25% in crops are some of the consequences of climate change in the country. This is the forecast issued by the Academy of Physical, Mathematical and Natural Sciences during a meeting held at the Andrés Bello Catholic University
The Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB) hosted the presentation of the first draft of the Second Academic Report on Climate Change in Venezuela, by the Academy of Physical, Mathematical and Natural Sciences (Acfiman). During the meeting, a group of experts presented the progress of the report that began to be drawn up in 2021 and will be available for public consultation at the end of 2024.
The activity was headed by the president of the Academy and doctor in physics, Ismardo Bonalde; the doctor in Sustainable Development, biologist and member of the Academy, Alicia Villamizar; the rector (e) and academic vice-rector of the UCAB, José Francisco Juárez, and the director of Environmental Sustainability of the university, engineer Joaquín Benítez.
Along with them, the researchers Estrella Villamizar and Davna Rodríguez presented their dissertations; Doctor Antonio Machado-Allison, president of the Academic Secretariat on Climate Change, and Doctor Isaías Lescher, professor at the University of Zulia; the engineer Jesús Gómez and the president of the National Academy of Engineering and Habitat, Eduardo Buroz Castillo, who provided the closing remarks.
A multidisciplinary effort for accurate information
More than 60 researchers are working on the preparation of the Second Academic Report on Climate Change in Venezuela, with a focus on the consequences of climate change in areas such as health, economy, agriculture and ecosystems divided in the works of three teams and two special task groups.
In general terms, the report shows an unfavorable outlook for agriculture, livestock and fishing; It also takes note of a shrinking of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that is expected to continue. Also, the increase in temperatures will have a direct effect on the country’s water reservoirs. The humanitarian crisis will further deteriorate, migration will increase and infections by insect bites will become more common due to the destruction of ecosystems.
During his dissertation, Ismardo Bonalde explained that this study is an update of a previous report (2014-2018) that includes data collection and information on the impact of climate change in Venezuela, scientific analysis, theoretical studies and simulations of climate change models. In addition, the impacts and vulnerabilities on relevant ecosystems in the country were analyzed.
«Climate change is essentially a State affair. In 2014, we decided to take action and promote activities to address the topic of climate change because the Venezuelan State has failed to properly do so,” he said.
However, Mr. Bonalde recognized that some changes have taken place: “Something important that has happened is that the national Executive branch seems to have finally taken action on the matter. From the Academy, we welcome this government action because this is its responsibility. The Academy is an advisory body to the Executive and Legislative branches, but the decisions on what should be done are in the hands of the government,” Bonalde pointed out.
11 facts of concern: current and future impact
According to the information presented, Venezuela is in a situation of vulnerability to climate change. Among other aspects, the report highlights the following:
- Venezuela ranked 118 out of 166 in the 2020 Global Sustainable Development Report with a score of 61.7 points, almost 10 points below the regional average of 70.4.
- Venezuela remains without a national framework of policies and strategies on climate change. It also continues to exhibit a regulatory weakness on the matter, which reflects the State’s failure to comply with international agreements.
- Between 2010 and 2020, the increase in temperatures has contributed to the reduction of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita by 0.97 to 1.30%.
- By 2030, Venezuela’s GDP per capita will be 10% lower than it would have been without climate change. By 2050, the GDP will be 36.6% lower.
- No State policy is in place for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. For 2019, 34% of GHG emissions were fugitive emissions, the product of leaks, flaring and venting during oil and gas production; 16% of emissions came from power generation; 15% from land and forest use; 13% from agriculture, and 10% from transportation. The remaining 12% was generated by industrial processes, manufacturing and construction, waste management and the residential sector.
- By 2030, 200,000 people may fall below the extreme poverty line in the country due to climate change.
- An increase in temperature of 3°C and a 10% increase in precipitation is expected.
- According to different models, many regions of the country will experience water stress. As a consequence, agriculture will be negatively impacted, generating losses of up to 25% in crops and food production.
- In a scenario of dry heat, the number of cattle in Venezuela will decrease by 3.2%.
- Infections transmitted by the bites of insects have increased and will continue to increase in prevalence, frequency and geographic range, reaching higher lands and rural areas.
- Special attention to the impact on the availability and quality of water resources in the country is advised for seven conservation areas: Lake Maracaibo and surrounding areas; the Caribbean Sea, the areas south of Orinoco River, Amazonas; the Andes; the inner range; the Río Negro; the Orinoco Delta; the Esequibo region, the areas north of Orinoco river, and the central plains.
“A small country with a shy industrial development, but still polluting”
The president of the Academy of Physical, Mathematical and Natural Sciences stressed that Venezuela does not contribute the same amount of polluting emissions as more industrialized countries. However, this is not a reason to ignore the problem: “We must know what and how to commit without causing damage to our economy, which is already in a state of frank deterioration.”
“It does not seem feasible that the country can commit to the same level as the large nations. We have to review these positions regarding our commitment to climate change. Yes, we can contribute to the reduction of GHG emissions. Yes, we can contribute to the preservation of our biodiversity despite being a small country. We must insist to the national Executive branch that the decision must consider the advice of national experts on the matter. “We have people in Venezuela with the capacity to do it and it is important to encourage their participation”
Ismardo Bonalde, President of the Academy Academy of Physical, Mathematical and Natural Sciences (Acfiman)
According to the draft of the Academy report, there has been a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in recent years, but they are not the result of a policy aimed at it rather than an effect of the economic crisis, the decrease in power generation, the reduction of oil production and refining, and the fall in the production of steel, aluminum and cement.
During her intervention, Professor Alicia Villamizar explained that the current situation shows a country where the impacts of climate change are felt more intensely as environmental problems have become more pronounced. “This means we are more vulnerable, less resilient and more exposed to the impacts of climate change. Also, the Complex Humanitarian Emergency in the country creates a context of precariousness in all areas, some of which will be affected by climate change.
However, the doctor in Sustainable Development highlighted that the positive aspect is the large amount of scientific information that has been produced thanks to this report. Although she acknowledged that more could have been done, she assured that it is “much more robust and thorough in terms of discerning between natural events and climate variability and the effects of climate change,” she asserted while adding that “despite the migration of national scientists and researchers, we have a fairly good number of around 60 experts that are contributing to the report.”
Getting informed, a key to saving the planet
Beyond the recommendations of turning off the lights, closing the taps, saving water, walking more, recycling if possible, and being more attentive to polluting habits, Dr. Villamizar invited the entire Venezuelan society to learn more about climate change as this is a concept that not everyone is necessarily familiar with, and although the information in the report may be complex due to the scientific language, “it should reach all of us.” She called on those who can make it more inviting and appealing for everyone.
“Not being well informed has greatly diminished the success of citizens’ complaints to governments, which are responsible for implementing measures because they have the institutional muscle, national coverage, and the possibility of investing in the areas where efforts against climate change need to be stepped up such as health, infrastructure, water, agriculture. They all need attention, but I believe there are areas where major investment is required to better protect ourselves from the impacts of climate change. The key is to be more and better informed.”
Dr. Alicia Villamizar
The role of universities in the fight against climate change
The institution that hosted the presentation, Andrés Bello Catholic University, promotes actions to mitigate, even at the local level, the impacts of climate change. For this reason, it has installed a Green Roof in the Postgraduate building, created a course on Ecology, Environment and Sustainability and extension programs for the training of community leaders and volunteers, designated a protected green area and a weather station, and participated in the UN program “Race to Zero” to minimize its carbon footprint.
Translated by José Rafael Medina
