“There seems to be a strong rejection of the entire political class, but I think that the primary process has generated a fairly high level of interest. There are many Venezuelans who want to participate and support their candidates, and there seems to be a level of enthusiasm, but I think that we must underline that this is electoral enthusiasm. In Venezuela, we are no longer in a moment of appetite for magical proposals, I do not think there will be any significant wave of rallies or protests as we have seen in previous years and anything other than an electoral way out will be rejected”

Time is running out and the opportunities for a negotiation that yields genuine results to overcome the crisis in Venezuela are running out. Nicolás Maduro is well aware of this, but so far nothing suggests that he is taking firm steps to make good use of the incentives given by the Joe Biden administration. The old policy of the carrot and the stick has not worked so far. In the opinion of political analyst Geoff Ramsey, Maduro has about two months left to give in and, once and for all, reach an agreement on the lifting of sanctions in exchange for genuine conditions for fair elections in Venezuela.

According to the provisions of the Constitution, Venezuela must hold presidential elections next year at the end of Nicolás Maduro’s term, which began in 2018 after the democratic opposition opted for abstention and “gave” him six more years in the presidency. The moment marked the beginning of a harsh contest of threats, international sanctions and dead ends that have led nowhere and have only served to keep Chavismo in power.

However, there could be light at the end of the tunnel. In a recent interview, Ramsey affirmed that an opportunity exists for a public agreement between the opposition grouped under the Unitary Platform, the Government of Nicolás Maduro and the Biden Administration.

“We are at a time when the window of opportunity is still open, but it cannot and will not remain open for much longer. If we get to the end of September or October, and no progress has been made at the negotiating table, I think it will be very difficult for the Biden government to justify any kind of change regarding its Venezuela policy, “he warned.

Geoff Ramsey is a Senior Research Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center; he is also a leading expert on the US policy for Venezuela and has visited the country regularly during the past decade. For him, the Venezuelan crisis has a political rather than economic origin.

The Atlantic Council makes five recommendations to advance the Social Agreement, including the lifting of some sanctions. And the report notes that the Mexico talks continue. The opposition has compromised. What has the Maduro government compromised, politically speaking?

Until now we have not seen a significant gesture from Maduro that could lead us to say that next year’s elections are going to be free and genuine, the truth is that the repression continues, the unconstitutional barring of opposition candidates is still underway and we are still waiting for a public electoral roadmap.

Honestly, I think we are at a time when the window of opportunity is still open, but it cannot and will not remain open for much longer. If we get to the end of September or October, and no progress has been made at the negotiating table, I think it will be very difficult for the Biden government to justify any kind of change regarding its Venezuela policy.

We are in an election year in the US as well, and the presidential campaign is heating, so the time to consider some kind of sanctions relief or some kind of deal is now, and the truth is that I do not see the Maduro government very convinced that they must act and make the most of the moment, but if they do not, the window will close.

The presidential elections in the United States are scheduled for November 5, 2024, and  Maduro would be “scoring a home run” if Biden fails to get re-elected and Donald Trump returns to the presidency…

Yes, this is part of the calculation that the government has to make, also because the Biden administration has a position of flexibility on sanctions and the normalization of diplomatic relations, but that could change especially if Biden loses the elections. Maduro must understand that this moment to act, and is not going to last much longer.

The warnings from government spokesmen -such as Diosdado Cabello- regarding the elections are clear. They call for “all or nothing” or there will be no “free elections.” That is why I insist on the question of what type of negotiation is it where one of the parties gives up everything and the other nothing. Political parties continue to be judicialized and their leaders are barred from running…

I believe that no government is monolithic. There are actors within Chavismo who would be interested in returning to a country connected to the global economy, and they have a weight inside Chavismo; Maduro seeks legitimacy and access to resources, and he knows that he will not get them without some kind of lifting of sanctions that follows an agreement with the opposition.

There are clearly incentives within Chavismo to negotiate, but the question is whether those incentives are decisive enough to promote some type of agreement.

It seems evident that there are conversations between Washington and Caracas, and between the opposition and the government, but until we see a public agreement, it is hard to believe that the government is going to compromise a lot.

Although he insists on the lifting of sanctions, Maduro has learned from them. In fact, due to the sanctions, the country began to use the US dollar to ease some pressure and the economy showed some progress that is slowing down today. So, what is the government’s real incentive to negotiate? Statistically, all attempts [to reach an agreement] with the government fail, and regarding the Social Agreement, there does not seem to be any progress in the political field, where the origin of the problem resides.

The sanctions are the clear objective and they have had an impact; we are seeing how inflation has increased, the recent economic growth is very small in comparison to last year and everything seems to indicate that the country is on the brink of recession once again.

In this scenario, Maduro may have incentives to seek a way out of the sanctions, and it is up to the United States, in coordination with the opposition, to encourage some kind of progress in the democratic space.

A few days ago, Reuters and Bloomberg reported that the government and the opposition were holding private negotiations aimed at lifting some sanctions in exchange for fair elections. The same has been reported before, can we believe it this time?

Yes, I think there seem to be backstage conversations between Washington and Caracas; there is a very active effort to promote a negotiation process with Venezuela, but a comprehensive agreement is still to be reached. There is nothing concrete,  but the fact that the United States has publicly acknowledged, for the first time, that it is in conversation with Maduro’s government suggests that the US is heavily encouraging the negotiations.

Recommendation 5 of the Atlantic Council calls to ensure coordinated international support for the negotiations process, reinforcing the need for the Maduro government to reach significant political agreements with the opposition.  Do you perceive genuine interest from Maduro to negotiate and honor the commitments? Just a few weeks ago the Supreme Court issued the judicial intervention of yet another political party, Venezuela’s Communist Party.

It is very difficult to believe that the government is going to negotiate in good faith, but it has important incentives to seek some partial lifting of the sanctions. We don’t know whether that will be enough, but without a doubt, this is the best tool for the international community and the opposition to try to promote some kind of agreement.

In the past, an agreement of coordination with the Pan American Health Organization amid the COVID-19 pandemic was reached. We must also recognize that the process in Mexico has been the most robust negotiation process in recent years; In no other process have we seen such a detailed agenda as the one signed by the parties in August 2021.

The international community continues to look at that agreement and the agenda of the Memorandum of Understanding as the only solution to the crisis in Venezuela. I believe that this process must be given a chance, without being naive and without ceasing to recognize that up to now the Maduro government has not given clear signs that it is willing to negotiate or reach an agreement.

What are the key elements from the political point of view which, in your opinion, the government should compromise in an agreement? There are always “non-negotiable” points. Points of honor, they call it.

I think it is very difficult to think of a solution to the crisis without talking about human rights violations. Human rights and the situation of political prisoners. An agreement would have to imply the release of political prisoners in Venezuela, and also much more solid electoral conditions, the presence of international observers, a roadmap and respect for electoral laws.

It is also very important to encourage an agreement not limited to the electoral field. A process of this type would have to seek the reinstitutionalization of the justice system, and that would imply significant reforms. To understand the whole picture, one must look at the Memorandum of Understanding and its seven points, including the recovery of the rule of law, the release of political prisoners and the attention to the humanitarian crisis

What would be the role of transitional justice? Do you think there could be a general amnesty in Venezuela?

Yes, there have been attempts to push transitional justice even in the National Assembly elected in 2015, where an attempt to discuss transitional justice was made in January 2019, to no avail. It is critical to incorporate the Venezuelan human rights movement in the conversation because it is clear that crimes against humanity cannot go unpunished. A transition process in Venezuela is going to imply some kind of transitional justice, but it cannot be a general amnesty.

Beyond the subject of the negotiations: what is your perception of the behavior of Venezuelans toward the political establishment in general? Some analysts point out that many people have preferred to stop “fighting” and “adapt” in a sort of cohabitation, after the failures of violent ways out [of the crisis] that people don’t seem to want to repeat.

There seems to be a strong rejection of the entire political class, but I think that the primary process has generated a fairly high level of interest. There are many Venezuelans who want to participate and support their candidates, and there seems to be a level of enthusiasm, but I think that we must underline that this is electoral enthusiasm.

In Venezuela, we are no longer in a moment of appetite for magical proposals, I do not think there will be any significant wave of rallies or protests as we have seen in previous years and anything other than an electoral way out will be rejected.

What are the attributes of a candidate who can beat Maduro in a presidential election?

I believe that beyond a candidate, unity is much more important; regardless of a candidate, it is essential that the opposition unanimously support the candidacy. Without a firm consensus around a candidate in combination with mass participation, the opposition has no chance in 2024.

A recent survey by Latinobarometro found that the indifference of citizens for democracy as a system of government is growing in South America while pointing out that Venezuela is nonetheless one of the countries where a good part of the people still favors democracy, although indifference is growing here too. How do you assess these results?

They do not surprise me because, despite the country’s political crisis and the context of growing authoritarianism, Venezuelans have a great interest in voting and deepening democracy, consistent with their preference for electoral participation. I think this is an opportunity that the opposition should seize to find ways to connect with people and advocate for their agenda in a way that can be appealing to the general population.

So far, we have not seen any significant concessions from the Maduro government, but the international community remains committed to a negotiation process that could lead to competitive elections next year; we are not going to see the lifting of sanctions without an agreement between the government and the opposition, I believe that the fact that we have not seen a truly negative reaction to the new board of directors of the Electoral Council is an indication that there could be negotiations behind the scenes.

The Unitary Platform denied having negotiated the appointment of a new board of directors of the Electoral Council. What is your opinion?

It is revealing to me that even opposition parties that reject a new Electoral Council all agree with the option of taking part in the elections, which means that we are not seeing a return to the rhetoric of abstention of previous years.

Translated by José Rafael Medina