According to political analysts, the recent detention and disappearance of Freddy Guevara, leader of Venezuelan opposition party Voluntad Popular, and the threat of imprisonment against other members of that political organization constitute a move by the government of Nicolás Maduro to divide and radicalize the opposition after it showed signs of coordination over an electoral and negotiated solution to the Venezuelan crisis.

“The intention is to affect the negotiation and the opposition’s ability to coordinate. This selective repression seeks to exacerbate the dilemmas, interests, and incentives within the opposition. With Guevara’s detention, the government seeks to divide the moderation that we had lately seen, re-radicalize, and give inputs to the maximalist sectors both in exile and in Venezuela so that they raise the costs of the negotiation”, explains the doctor in political science from the University of Oxford, Maryhen Jiménez.

Currently, a delegation named by Juan Guaidó is advancing negotiations with international actors to set up a negotiation table with representatives of Nicolás Maduro and the mediation of the Kingdom of Norway.

The doctor in contemporary political processes, Juan Manuel Trak, considers that, besides the intention of radicalizing Voluntad Popular, Chavismo seeks to impose the actors that it considers most convenient to its interests in a negotiation.

“In the face of possible negotiations, the government is seeking to remove or delegitimize Voluntad Popular, the party in control of the interim government, to negotiate only with those with whom it feels comfortable. The persecution of Voluntad Popular aims to reduce the number of actors with whom it intends to negotiate and define in advance who will sit at the table,” Trak explained.

Guaidó warned about Maduro’s intention to implode the negotiating table before its installation with the detention of Guevara and the intimidation of armed groups at his residence.

“You have kidnapped Freddy Guevara. The responsibility belongs to Maduro who wants to implode a possible agreement; the responsibility is yours, and if you do not assume it then you cannot call yourself a dictator at this time because you do not control anything,” he said.

Demobilized voters

The ruling party also seeks to frustrate the participation of the four biggest opposition parties (Acción Democrática, Primero Justicia, Voluntad Popular, and Un Nuevo Tiempo) in the November 21 elections and demobilize citizens, according to experts.

The unitary platform led by Juan Guaidó is still discussing whether or not it is going to the elections, and the recent arrest of Guevara could pave the way for abstention.

This would explain why the Chavista government acts against Voluntad Popular at times when a technical mission of the European Union is in the country to assess the possibility of sending international observers to the regional and municipal elections.

“I think the government saw the possibility of the elections becoming a motivation for the mobilization of the people. One of the elements that the polls showed after 2015 is that a qualified international observation and changes in the National Electoral Council generate confidence and a possible increase in the willingness to vote. In the scenario of a coordinated opposition, this could mean an increase in the number of votes against the government, especially with the current divisions in the ruling party”, argued Trak.

The sociologist supports his hypothesis with quantitative data: In 2018, opposition party Copei got only 900 thousand votes and became the most voted party of the Democratic Alliance that now tries to replace the coalition of the four biggest opposition parties.

In 2020, popular support did not improve for the Democratic Alliance (which is integrated by the parties of the National Dialogue Table) as it only obtained 18% of the votes; that is, less than 1.5 million. “These parties do not seem to have very strong support among voters; I think the government would feel more comfortable with this type of opposition and with the elimination of any option that could agglutinate the existing social discontent” Trak maintained.

Jiménez highlighted that another variable to consider is the authorization of the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) card, the most voted party in the recent history of the country that gave the opposition a parliamentary majority in 2015.

“For the government, a unified opposition under the MUD card is very risky. The MUD brand still has an important value and this is not in the government’s interest. That is why it wants to disturb or prevent the possibility of nominations that could encourage the voters, ” she said.

A long term strategy

The two analysts agree that the opposition and the international actors that support it must insist on the electoral and negotiated path. “The probability of success of the negotiation is very low given the nature of the government, but it must be insisted on. It remains for the political actors to measure whether this is an opportunity to regroup, reorganize, and mobilize not only for the November 21 elections but also in terms of building a much broader democratizing movement for 2024, ” Trak said.

Jiménez believes that the dissidence must escape from the situation and think about a strategy for the 2024 presidential elections. “Guevara’s message before he was arrested is important because it remains in the line of negotiation despite the costs that the government has imposed. The audacious thing to do is staying on the electoral and negotiated path”, she concludes.

The evidence

So far, the evidence that the Maduro government has presented through the voice of the President of the National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, rather than the Public Ministry, to accuse Guevara of terrorism and treason are screenshots of alleged conversations between members of Voluntad Popular on WhatsApp.

The messages involve other opposition politicians, including Emilio Graterón, Hasler Iglesias, and Gilber Caro.

However, one aspect that raised questions among journalists specialized in technology was the possibility of the government having access to conversations on that messaging platform.

Journalist Luis Carlos Díaz stated: “If Venezuela had the technical capacity to hack WhatsApp’s encryption and access private conversations between two users without having their phones at hand, the platform’s market value would have immediately plummeted, which was not the case”.

WhatsApp also responded on its Twitter handle to confirm that the company guarantees the privacy of its users with end-to-end encryption.

However, journalist Arnaldo Espinoza maintains that it is possible to intercept communications, including WhatsApp, through digital forensic analysis equipment. However, he clarifies that it is necessary to have access to the user’s phone to do so.

In any case, regarding the origin of the conversations, the government only mentioned that the screenshots had been recovered from Guevara’s phone.

In response to the official version, the relatives and lawyers of the opposition leader maintain that his disappearance is part of a pattern of political persecution and arbitrary detentions that seek to nullify dissent in the country.

Translated by José Rafael Medina