Six months have passed since the suspension of the negotiations between the Maduro Government and the opposition’s Unitarian Platform in Mexico. Despite repeated calls from inside and outside the country to resume the talks, the Venezuelan government turns a blind eye while insisting on a “reformatted” dialogue, whose agenda remains unclear.

What makes chavismo-madurismo refuse to return to Mexico? According to political scientists consulted by Efecto Cocuyo, there seem to be several reasons, including continuing to press for the release of businessman Alex Saab, downplaying the role of the Guaidó-led opposition, and seeking direct contact with the Joe Biden administration and a vantage point in the 2024 presidential elections.

“The Mexico negotiations imply giving a prominent role to Juan Guaidó and the G4 (the name given to the block formed by Venezuela’s four largest opposition parties), a possibility that [Maduro] has tried to discard through several means, including the administrative intervention of the parties of the opposition block (Accion Democratica, Voluntad Popular, Un Nuevo Tiempo and Primero Justicia), accusations of terrorism, and attempts at strengthening alternative parties,” says political scientist Jesús Castellanos Vásquez.

On March 7, Maduro announced a new round of national dialogue with a different format from the Mexico talks. The declaration came a couple of days after the March 5 visit of a delegation of the Government of the United States Government to Venezuela for oil talks with Maduro, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

According to Mr. Castellanos, Maduro is taking advantage of a rapprochement with the US and the weakness of the G4 to incorporate into the negotiation table other actors that, unlike the Unitary Platform that accompanies Guaidó, can be more innocuous for chavismo.

“He doesn’t feel pressured”

The political scientist Guillermo Tell Aveledo agrees that the Maduro government is downplaying the opposition’s options in Mexico because its opponents do not seem to be united around a strategy, among other reasons.

“The government of Nicolás Maduro does not feel pressured to sit down [in Mexico] and does not perceive that it is going to get much of the talks because its counterpart is not powerful enough. Thus, it is seeking to reactivate the talks in a different way,” he warns.

Guaidó has reiterated that the Mexico talks can serve to negotiate free general elections in Venezuela in exchange for the progressive lifting of international sanctions against the Maduro administration.

The university professor explains that “there are no practical incentives for the Maduro government because it perceives that the opposition has little to offer in Mexico as long as it does not have control over certain variables and a common strategy. Then, the Government is not certain as to what it can get from the negotiations. There are rather incentives for preserving the status quo, both within the opposition and the State due to the Government’s relative advantage.”

During a surprising meeting at the presidential palace, a member of the civil society platform, Civic Forum, urged Maduro to resume the talks in Mexico. The same was requested by the 25 signatories of a letter sent to president Biden requesting the lifting of the sanctions that affect the national economy, especially the oil industry.

Chavismo is dragging its feet

Meanwhile, Chavismo continues to drag its feet and opts for the slow lane. No further progress has been made ever since Maduro and the president of the 2020 National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, announced in early March the “reformatting of the dialogue” and an ” intensive round of meetings with different sectors to set an agenda and the mechanism of the talks”, aside from the Mexico process, respectively.

On April 20, the Special Commission for Dialogue, Peace and National Reconciliation, chaired by Rodríguez, delivered a preliminary report to the 2020 National Assembly plenary on the work of the instance in its first 14 months, without offering further details about its meetings with other actors or the existence of an agenda for the “reformatted” talks.

Rodríguez only mentioned having spoken with different sectors across the country and highlighted the meetings with the Civic Forum, the moderate opposition groups of the Alianza Democratica (Democratic Alliance), and other political organizations such as Fuerza Vecinal and Alianza del Lapiz. He also mentioned sectors of the “extinct G3”, without specifying names.

He also noted that the climate of “peace” in Venezuela makes it possible to hold the meetings in Venezuela rather than in a third country, in a veiled allusion to Mexico. Previous declarations according to which “Mexico has accomplished its mission” and “we will not accept international tutelage” -in reference to international mediation- indicate that the head of Maduro’s delegation has already turned the page.

After a rapprochement with the US, Chavismo no longer talks much about Colombian businessman Álex Saab, imprisoned in the state of Florida, but his extradition from Cape Verde in October 2021 was the perfect excuse to walk out of the table in Mexico. The release of the “diplomat” (a status granted by the Maduro government) was set as a condition for the resumption of talks.

Mexico continues to be the benchmark

Aveledo points out that “reformatting the Mexico talks is an act of distraction and evasion of reality (…) the truth is that the Government is not in a big rush. If the Government of the United States can talk directly with the Venezuelan government, bypassing the opposition, the Mexico process will be further weakened.”

He does not expect much from a “dialogue” under Maduro’s conditions, a process that he deems very similar to the so-called mesita (little table) of 2019 with a sector of the opposition regarded as “favorable” to Maduro.

However, Avelado considers that the process mediated by Norway continues to be “the benchmark” for dialogue, so he does not completely rule out an eventual resumption, as different sectors have been calling for.

“The convenience of the Mexico talks will only rely on the support it has from the so-called partners in the process, hence the importance of the role of the United States,” he added.

The US Under Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, Brian Nichols, indicated that they will continue to support the effort made in Mexico because “it has the best prospects” for a lasting solution to the problems in Venezuela.

“Our goal is to encourage the Maduro regime and the interim government to return to the negotiating table in Mexico City, where Venezuela negotiated and led the solution to that country’s problems,” the official recently declared.

Uncertain times

Castellano Vásquez does not expect much from the “reformatted dialogue” either.

“This dialogue could give Maduro a vantage point in the 2024 presidential elections, and that is the kind of dialogue that he is going to promote. The question is whether it will be enough for the US. Will this proposal for dialogue make it possible to improve electoral conditions or alleviate the humanitarian crisis? I greatly doubt it,” he points out.

The political scientist also warns that the international sanctions, one of the main reasons for the Maduro Government to sit in Mexico, continue to be a core topic for the ruling faction, so it will continue to seek ways to alleviate them.

He recalls that “progress” made in the regional and municipal elections of 2021, in terms of a “less unbalanced” Electoral Power, international electoral observation by the European Union and the United Nations, the comprehensive audit of the automated voting system, and the legalization of the opposition electoral card, is part of that objective.

 “Those were not graceful or democratizing concessions,” he noted.

Translated by Jose Rafael Medina