The COVID-19 outbreak has affected all areas of human life, including politics, and more specifically, political regimes and elections. International IDEA counted fifty-two countries or territories postponing elections or referenda because of the pandemic, while twenty have decided to hold them. Hence, it is of great interest to know, for example, the strategies implemented for the parliamentary elections in South Korea, the first round of the French municipal elections (the second round was postponed due to the high abstention rate), or the current debates on the postponement of a plebiscite in Chile or the use of mail voting in Poland.
This article aims to assess the possibility of holding comprehensive elections in Venezuela, in context now impacted by the COVID-19 phenomenon.
Suspending elections, even for emergencies of this nature, is not a minor matter. In addition to the obvious damage to democratic dynamics, there are other institutional (confidence), political (internal conflict), legal (unconstitutional non-compliance), financial, and operative risks. Pandemics are fertile grounds for the birth or upsurge of authoritarianism according to the “Pandemic backsliding risk index”, which indicates that forty-eight countries, including Venezuela, are at high risk of democratic decline, while thirty-four have a medium risk according to criteria such as significant violations of one or more democratic standards due to the emergency, and previous authoritarian leaning.
According to Levitsky and Ziblatt, autocrats “love” emergencies because they constitute an opportunity to 1) build public support, thanks to the crisis and the enhancement of public tolerance; 2) silence opposing voices amid the gravity of the circumstance and 3) Raise the executive power, even against the constitution, above the rest of the public powers. In this regard, Roth affirms that the Coronavirus offers an excuse to silence criticism and consolidate power, evident in multiple cases: China, Thailand, Venezuela, Turkey, Brazil, and even Hungary, where Prime Minister Orbán established an indefinite state of emergency.
For Youngs, there are two groups of countries: the “authoritarian or those along that line, who take advantage to deepen those tendencies; and the democratic ones that postpone elections for justified reasons but supposedly guarantee that governments will not be able to manipulate the situation.” In that spirit, Casas highlights: “It would be foolish to deny governments the possibility of limiting freedoms, temporarily and under the supervision of legislators and judges, during an emergency. My concern is that this becomes the norm for democratic regimes, not only because authoritarian leaders demand them, but because of fearful citizens’ consent to it. ”
COVID-19 arrives in Venezuela during one of the worst moments in its history. As indicated in the COVID 19 Global Humanitarian Response Plan (2020), our country is in a particularly vulnerable situation given its limited capacity to deal with the pandemic due to shortages of food and medical supplies, lack of water and electricity, and the migration of health care professionals, which add to a huge economic crisis and problems with fuel and distribution of goods; This complements the content of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Report on the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (2019) regarding the crisis of economic and social rights (food, health care). In this report, it is also possible to confirm the authoritarian condition of the regime (violations of freedom of opinion and expression, selective repression and persecution for political reasons, attack on actors critical of the regime, excessive use of force, arbitrary arrests, torture, and ill-treatment.), described in the 2020 Freedom in the World report, in which Venezuela was classified as a non-free country due to the breach of international democratic standards in political rights (elections, political participation and pluralism, government functioning) and civil rights (freedom of expression, association, and assembly; respect for the law, personal autonomy, and individual rights).
Nicolás Maduro, who holds the Presidency of the Republic after fraudulent elections in 2018, declared that he does not know if there will be elections this year because we have this priority, leaving open the possibility of violating the constitutional mandate of holding parliamentary elections every five years and the legal competence of the National Electoral Council (CNE) to call them or suspend them. Under this context, is it possible to hold free elections in Venezuela?
Holding free elections in the country was an uphill battle before the pandemic due to the undemocratic nature of the regime that translates into the disregard for the rule of law, the subordination of the rest of the public powers, including the CNE, and the illegalization of most political parties of the opposition, except for a fraction of the National Assembly. COVID-19 has only come to further aggravate the prospects of holding elections in Venezuela under democratic standards, and offer Maduro additional opportunities to radicalize his authoritarian rule.
Recommendations on elections and COVID-19 abound. Querido highlights the importance of institutional quality for electoral administration, the use of electoral technology, and early voting. Similarly, The Inter-American Institute of Human Rights proposes a whole framework that includes virtual electoral campaigns, robust citizen training, young people working in voting centers, precautions in the preparation of electoral material, conditioning of voting centers (creation of new centers, observing social distancing, providing sanitation, the adaptation of protocols). Additionally, it suggests the possibility of voting in two days or more and / or extending the voting hours, in addition to creating voting timetables.
In conclusion, holding comprehensive elections in Venezuela requires to restore minimum democratic conditions, there is no other option. Once this has been accomplished, we propose:
- Rigorously evaluating the COVID-19 situation in Venezuela;
- Seeking a national agreement for elections amid the COVID-19 pandemic;
And in the event of elections:
- Reviewing successful electoral practices amid the COVID-19 pandemic;
- Reviewing and modifying the current legislation to allow: a) online electoral registration and voting for Venezuelans abroad, optional for residents in the national territory, and b) Early in-person voting (non-postal). Allowing at least two days of voting and exclusive time slots for vulnerable groups;
- Incorporating and / or increasing elements of electoral technology (citizen education, training, applications, electoral campaign, scrutiny and totalization, etc.);
- Incorporating all the security mechanisms in the preparation of electoral material and its distribution, installation of electoral centers, etc.;
- Adapting the Voting Centers (number, working hours, security protocols, integration of the youth, etc, and
- Seeking assistance, international observation and financial support.
